Israel-Iran conflict sends economic shockwaves through Southern Africa

The spiraling conflict between Israel and Iran is beginning to hit closer to home, with economic and political tremors now being felt across Southern Africa and the continent at large.

On Friday, South Africa’s currency took a notable knock, with the rand weakening by 1.6% to R18.04 to the US dollar, as jittery investors scrambled for safer assets amid rising global uncertainty. Government bond yields followed suit, with 2035 bonds climbing to 10.25%, reflecting fears of prolonged geopolitical instability.

The international oil market has also responded sharply. Brent crude surged more than 9%, nearing US$76 a barrel, raising the specter of inflation across oil-importing African nations, including Namibia, Botswana, and Zambia. Analysts warn this could have knock-on effects for food prices, fuel subsidies, and national budgets.

Regional and continental bodies have urged caution. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union (AU) issued statements calling for de-escalation, warning that rising tensions in the Middle East risk disrupting global trade routes, straining healthcare systems, and exacerbating fiscal stress in vulnerable economies. The Red Sea shipping corridor, a crucial trade artery, remains particularly exposed to further conflict spillover.

Local political analyst Rui Tyitende said the conflict’s ripple effect is already being felt across African markets, especially those heavily reliant on energy imports. “We are not insulated from global volatility. What happens between Israel and Iran doesn’t stay in the Middle East—it lands in our fuel tanks and on our supermarket shelves.”

Meanwhile, Acting Director of the Center for Security, Peace and Conflict Resolution at Nelson Mandela University, Prof. Ntsikelelo Breakfast added that the conflict could also influence diplomatic alliances and expose geopolitical fault lines within the continent.

With no immediate resolution in sight, economists and policymakers across Africa are bracing for what could be a prolonged period of global uncertainty—with local consequences.