Give Peace a Chance in Yemen Despite Regional Violence

A screen grab of a Houthi video capturing the militia’s seizure of the Galaxy Leader cargo ship in the Red Sea, Nov. 19, 2023. The Houthis still control the ship. As violence between the rebels and certain Western countries rises, the author writes that the Omani-led peace deal for Yemen is still viable. EMILY SCHRADER/TWITTER

By Arwa Mokdad via PassBlue

The relentless bombardment in Gaza by Israel Defense Forces is threatening to further destabilize the Middle East and prolong existing conflicts. While Omani-led peace negotiations for Yemen continue amid these fractures, the boiling tensions in the Red Sea could halt the crucial but incremental progress that has been made for the war-torn nation. By curtailing foreign intervention in the negotiations and resuming World Food Program aid deliveries in the north, however, the United Nations can still help stabilize the country.

Recent military airstrikes by the United States and Britain against the Houthis for their naval blockade in the Red Sea are only escalating the crisis. Yet Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, the main parties to the peace talks, still want a peace deal. This possibility offers hope for Yemen, the poorest country in the region, and the international community must nurture this need despite increasing violence by the Houthis and certain Western powers.

The Houthis launched ballistic missiles into Israel on Oct. 30, in response to Israel’s retaliatory bombing of Gaza after Oct. 7, when Hamas carried out fatal attacks in Israel. The Houthis’ missile launchings have continued since then, albeit with no casualties or damage reported so far by Israel, suggesting the symbolic nature of these actions.

Yet Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are affecting Israel in other ways. On Nov. 14, the militia announced that it would not allow the passage of any Israeli-linked ship through the crucial strait of Bab el-Mandeb, until there was a ceasefire in Gaza. On Dec. 9, the Houthis said that they would target Israel-bound ships in the Red Sea until humanitarian aid is allowed into Gaza. Following these announcements, the group attacked 26 commercial ships, and in November, it seized the Galaxy Leader, a cargo carrier owned by a Japanese company and an Israeli businessman.

Since 20 percent of ship-container traffic passes through Bab el-Mandeb, these threats and actions have hurt Israel directly. Revenue from its Eilat port has dropped 80 percent. Houthi disruptions are also hurting global trade, with some shipping companies avoiding Red Sea routes. The Houthis’ tactics are an attempt to pressure Israel into a permanent ceasefire by driving up shipping costs. Israel has refused to agree to a ceasefire despite widespread international demands, including from UN Secretary-General António Guterres. Moreover, the UN Security Council’s recent condemnation of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea has had no mitigating effect. The US is also reportedly ready to redesignate the Houthi rebels as “global terrorists.”

Responding to demands from shipping companies and Israel, military strikes by the US and Britain began on Jan. 12 against the Houthis across Yemen, hitting Sanaa, Sada, Hajjah, Hudayadh and Taiz governorates. Rather than deter the Houthis, the attacks have inflamed the group and worsened the overall dire humanitarian situation in Yemen, prompting more missile launches by the militia into the Red Sea, including a barrage on a US-owned ship on Jan. 15.

While no Americans or foreign nationals have been killed by the Houthi attacks, 16 Houthis have been killed by the US. In response, the UN special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, urged “all involved to exercise maximum restraint and to prioritize diplomatic channels over military options and calls for de-escalation.”

Since 2015, Yemen has been embroiled in an interstate war on numerous fronts, drawing a wide array of foreign interference, but mostly from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The war and ensuing Saudi-imposed blockade on Yemen have resulted in one of the largest humanitarian crises in the world — spurring the international community to try to negotiate an end to the conflict, with middling results. As 25 international aid groups said on Jan. 17, the latest escalation in the Gulf “will only worsen the situation for vulnerable civilians and hinder the ability of aid organizations to deliver critical services” into Yemen.

Yet a de facto truce in Yemen has lasted since August 2022, with recent reports of the potential peace deal underway, brokered by Oman and the UN between the Houthis and the exiled Yemeni government, backed by the Saudis. The plan includes instituting a nationwide ceasefire, the two sides’ committing to resuming oil exports, paying all public-sector salaries, opening roads in Taiz and other parts of Yemen and easing restrictions on Sanaa Airport and Hodeidah port, according to a statement from Grundberg in December.

The increasing military actions by the West on Yemen now could could crush this long-awaited progress. Further, ending food distribution by the World Food Program in northern Yemen, which is under Houthi control, during this precarious time is further damaging UN credibility within the country.

Other key missteps in the past by UN entities include removing Saudi Arabia from the UN’s annual blacklist of perpetrators of child atrocities; failing to renew the independent war crimes investigation by experts on Yemen, as authorized by the Human Rights Council; and the cementing of unrealistic negotiation terms embedded in Security Council Resolution 2216. Additionally, special envoys have been based in Jordan, not Yemen, since the start of the war, hurting UN effectiveness.

Despite his efforts, the UN has struggled to fully engage with all parties to the conflict, but mostly the Houthis, because of these mistakes. Previous UN special envoys have faced tremendous challenges in negotiating with the Houthis — with many obstacles stemming from distrust based on perceived UN mismanagement in Yemen.

By ensuring that the parties to the conflict remain at the center of current negotiations and by keeping Western interests and agendas out, the UN can regain credibility in Yemen and support the fragile peace process. The new violence in the Red Sea and Western missile attacks against the Houthis could indeed curtail recent progress, yet both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis want peace. They recognize that an agreement will help steady the Gulf region. It may be a powder keg, but through de-escalation Yemen can stay on the long-awaited path to peace.

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