The Namibian economy is expected to grow by 3.1 percent in 2024

The Bank of Namibia released the Economic Outlook for August 2024 with the domestic economy estimated to expand by 3.1 percent in 2024 and by 3.9 percent in 2025.

Global and Regional Outlook

Global economic growth is projected to remain low in 2024 before improving slightly in 2025.

Global growth is projected to slow down to 3.2 percent in 2024, from 3.3 percent in 2023, before rising moderately to 3.3 percent in 2025. The projected growth rate for 2024 is unchanged, while that of 2025 has been revised upwards by 0.1 percentage point from the April 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), mainly on account of revised growth for China.

Growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) is projected to remain stable in 2024 and 2025. Growth in EMDEs is estimated to remain at 4.3 percent in both 2024 and 2025, from the 4.4 percent recorded in 2023. The latest growth estimate for 2024 reflects an upward revision by 0.1 percentage point from the April 2024 WEO estimate, largely on account of revised growth forecast for China. Similarly, the World Bank projects growth in EMDEs to remain stable at 4.0 percent in 2024 as well as in 2025.

Growth in Sub-Saharan African economies is expected to improve, both in 2024 and in 2025.

GDP growth in the Sub-Saharan African (SSA) region is estimated at 3.7 percent and 4.1 percent in 2024 and 2025, respectively, an improvement from 3.4 percent in 2023.

The anticipated improvement is linked to subsiding negative effects of weather shocks and gradual improvements in supply chains.

Domestic Economic Outlook

Namibia’s GDP growth is projected to slow down in 2024, mainly due to subdued growth in the global economy, affecting demand for our minerals and prevailing drought conditions.

Real GDP growth is projected to moderate downwards to 3.1 percent in 2024, from 4.2 percent registered in 2023.

Besides the weak demand, high base effects from the mining industry are expected to exert downward pressure on the 2024 growth for the same industry.

Domestic growth projections are subject to substantial risks from global monetary policy conditions, adverse effects of the drought, and weakened global commodity demand.

The global trend of tight monetary conditions could continue to dampen the purchasing power and consumption.

Similarly, the prevailing drought conditions are likely to dampen agricultural output throughout the forecast period, while strained water resources could restrict growth in output from the uranium sector. Additionally, weakened global commodity demand and competition from lab-grown diamonds could hold back growth in themining sector.