South Africa faces trade fallout with U.S.

“He wants access to our markets but refuses to abide by Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (BBBEE) policies.”

WINDHOEK, March 12 – Diplomatic tensions between South Africa and the United States have intensified following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s decision to sign the controversial Expropriation Act into law. The move has received strong opposition from Washington, with the Trump administration responding by cutting aid and accusing Pretoria of discrimination against Afrikaner farmers.

News24 reported that the US embassy on Tuesday said the secretary of state and secretary of homeland security would take “appropriate steps” to prioritise “humanitarian relief”, including “admission and resettlement through the United States Refugee Admissions Programme, for Afrikaners in South Africa who are victims of unjust racial discrimination”.

Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast (PhD) is the Director of the Center for Security, Peace and Conflict Resolution at Nelson Mandela University. He is the former Head of the School for Security and Africa Studies at Stellenbosch University (SU). 

Meanwhile, USAID funding cuts have further strained bilateral relations, signaling a potential shift in U.S. policy toward South Africa. Speaking to Future Media, Professor Ntsikelelo Breakfast who is the Acting Director of the Center for Security, Peace and Conflict Resolution at Nelson Mandela University, analysed the growing discord.

“Trump gravitates too much towards market forces and those who elevated him to power, like Elon Musk and other influential figures with unresolved business interests in South Africa.”

The professor noted that U.S. pressure to remove what it perceives as racially motivated economic laws has contributed to the breakdown in relations. “The U.S. is a major trading partner for South Africa. If tensions escalate, the impact on trade agreements such as AGOA could be severe,” he warned.

Amid growing uncertainty, geopolitical dynamics are also shifting, with South Africa engaging other global powers. Breakfast suggested that Russia, which has maintained a softer diplomatic stance toward the U.S. in recent months, could play a role in influencing Republican decision-making.

“The U.S. is now taking a different approach towards Russia. If Moscow and Washington are aligned on certain global matters, South Africa may find itself needing to strengthen ties with Russia to counterbalance U.S. influence,” he said.

Concerns have also been raised about the evolving power struggle between the U.S. and China on the African continent. Washington has long exercised soft power in Africa through initiatives like PEPFAR and USAID, but China’s increasing economic investments are shifting the landscape.

“There are no freebies in politics,” Breakfast asserted. “Soft power is always a means to an end—access to markets. If a country does not comply with certain policies, it faces consequences.”

With U.S.-South Africa relations at a crossroads, experts warn that further diplomatic and economic fallout could follow if tensions are not addressed.

According to the United States Department of State, since South Africa transitioned to democracy in 1994, the United States and South Africa have built a solid bilateral relationship. The department maintains that South Africa is a strategic partner of the United States, with strong collaboration in the areas of health, education, environment, and digital economy.