Climate change intensified deadly 2022 Durban floods, Wits study finds

Reservoir Hills Photo by Delwyn Verasamy Daily Maverick 

A new scientific study led by the University of the Witwatersrand confirms that climate change significantly worsened the April 2022 Durban floods, which claimed 544 lives and displaced tens of thousands. The research, published in Communications Earth & Environment, models rainfall between 11–12 April as being 40% to 107% heavier than it would have been in a cooler, pre-industrial climate.

Using kilometer-scale climate modeling led by Prof. François Engelbrecht, the study pinpointed three main drivers behind the intensified storm:

• A warmer atmosphere holding more moisture thanks to greenhouse gases

• Elevated temperatures in the Agulhas Current increasing evaporation and storm intensity

• Shifting wind patterns funneling moist air into KwaZulu‑Natal

Researchers believe this marks Africa’s first high-resolution attribution study of its kind, enabling real-time assessments of climate-disaster links. The findings underscore the urgent need for advanced early-warning systems and improved urban planning to mitigate future risks