SACU revenue at risk as South Africa scrambles to renegotiate with U.S.

Namibia is likely to feel the economic aftershocks of the 30% tariff imposed by the United States on South African goods, according to economist Dr. Omu Matundu, who says the move could contract South Africa’s export market and dent Namibia’s revenue from the regional customs pool.

South Africa, Namibia’s largest trading partner and the continent’s most industrialised economy, has seen key sectors such as automotive and agriculture directly targeted by Washington’s latest round of tariff hikes. This, Matundu explains, will reduce South African exports to the US — particularly citrus and vehicle components — and lead to a slowdown in regional trade volumes.

“Whatever happens to South Africa’s economy affects us. If their exports drop and their economy contracts, we will feel it — and not just through trade, but also through revenue,” he said.

Namibia belongs to the Southern African Customs Union (SACU), which pools import duties and shares the revenue among member states. If South Africa renegotiates its trade terms and allows more American goods in at lower tariffs, that could shrink the total revenue in the pool — and by extension, Namibia’s cut.

“If SACU receipts drop, it could knock billions off our national budget. Government may then be forced to either borrow more or cut back on public spending — which would have serious consequences, since the state is still the biggest economic player in Namibia,” Matundu said.

While a minor benefit could be lower fruit prices locally — if excess South African produce is redirected to Namibia — Matundu cautioned that this is a “far-fetched upside” compared to the broader risks.

He added that tools like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could provide a buffer in the long run, but only if member countries actively reduce their dependence on traditional markets and strengthen intra-African trade links.