Comoros: Blue Economy Offers a Transformative Path to Sustainable Growth

Comoros’ economy shows signs of recovery, surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels. Growth rose from 3 percent in 2023 to 3.4 percent in 2024, driven by household consumption supported by a 5.4 percent increase in remittances and strong services sector performance. Average annual inflation declined from 8.5 to 5.0 percent in 2024, reflecting the stabilization of global commodity prices and lower inflation in the Eurozone. Growth is projected to reach 4 percent by 2027, fueled by consumption and planned investments. However, poverty is projected to decline only slightly, due to modest GDP growth, high inequality, and weak social protection. Using the lower middle-income poverty line of $3.65 per day, the poverty rate is estimated at 38.1 percent in 2024 and expected to fall marginally to 37.2 percent in 2025.

“Persistent poverty and high inequality in Comoros reflect deep regional disparities and structural challenges. Low labor participation, underemployment, and limited access to quality education continue to hold back productivity and incomes. While remittances offer short-term relief, they cannot replace a dynamic, self-sustaining economy,” said Boubacar-Sid Barry, World Bank Resident Representative in Comoros. “Without bold reforms, poverty may deepen. The World Bank is committed to supporting Comoros on its path toward more inclusive and sustainable growth.”

The first edition of the Comoros Economic Update: An Ocean of Opportunities from the World Bank highlights that, without addressing structural barriers to investment and external competitiveness, growth will remain fragile. This will hamper job creation and income growth needed to reduce poverty and strengthen resilience to future shocks. The report also warns of significant downside risks. Comoros remains highly vulnerable to climate-related disasters, while rising fiscal pressures, contingent liabilities from state-owned enterprises, and a fragile banking sector increase macroeconomic risks. The current account deficit is expected to widen in the medium-term due to structural trade imbalances and infrastructure-driven imports, emphasizing the need for export diversification, stronger external buffers, and sustainable financing strategies.

The blue economy offers a transformative opportunity for Comoros to achieve sustainable and inclusive growth, according to the focus section of this report. With targeted reforms and strategic investments, it has the potential to elevate Comoros to upper-middle-income status by 2050, requiring sustained annual GDP growth of 6.1 percent. Fisheries have demonstrated strong performance, averaging 11.4 percent of GDP between 2018 and 2024. Modernizing the sector could increase its contribution to 16 percent by 2035. Marine tourism also holds significant promise, with the potential to quadruple visitor arrivals by 2030 and contribute over 6 percent of GDP by mid-century. Integrated development of eco-tourism, sustainable fisheries, and marine conservation can further promote inclusive growth while protecting natural ecosystems. However, achieving this vision will depend on restoring natural capital, expanding renewable energy, upgrading infrastructure, and strengthening environmental safeguards.

“Comoros stands at a turning point. The shift toward services and the blue economy has the potential to make Comoros a regional leader in sustainability. By 2040, services could contribute nearly two-thirds of GDP, with tourism and fisheries driving inclusive growth. Strong governance and sustained investment in these sectors can unlock lasting opportunities for people and protect the country’s natural wealth,” said Patrick John McCartney, Senior Economist at the World Bank in Comoros and author of the report.

A well-executed blue economy strategy can position Comoros as a regional leader in sustainable marine resource management while driving economic diversification, job creation, and resilience. Fully leveraging the synergies between fisheries, tourism, and conservation will be key to maximizing economic benefits while protecting vital natural assets. Strategic investments in governance, infrastructure, market access, and environmental sustainability can help transform the blue economy into a pillar of national development. This vision aligns with the objectives of the Plan Comoros Émergent 2030 (PCE 2030). By capitalizing on its rich marine resources, Comoros can pave the way for a more prosperous and sustainable future, achieving its ambition of reaching upper-middle-income status by 2050.

Distributed by APO Group on behalf of The World Bank Group.