INTERVEIW: Ndumba Kamwanya Analyzes Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah’s International Lead in Early Election Results

As Namibia’s national election draws closer, political analyst Ndumba Kamwanya has weighed in on the early results from the special vote, where SWAPO’s presidential candidate, Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah, secured a commanding 60% of the preliminary vote. Kamwanya acknowledges that while the early results offer a glimpse into the emerging trends, it is important not to read too much into them.

Kamwanya points out that the special election electorate—comprised largely of diplomats, members of the defense forces, and police officers who are often aligned with the ruling SWAPO party—tends to favor the incumbent. “This is not unexpected. These groups typically show support for the ruling party,” he explains. While Nandi-Ndaitwah’s strong performance abroad, especially in securing votes from Namibians living overseas, is notable, Kamwanya observes that the real test will come on November 27, when the general election takes place and a broader, more diverse electorate casts their votes.

While SWAPO has performed well in the special vote, Kamwanya also highlights a shift towards alternative political forces, as evidenced by the growing support for the Independent Patriots for Change (IPC) and Affirmative Repositioning (AR). “There is a suggestion that some voters are moving towards a change or an alternative to SWAPO, but it’s too early to make any conclusive judgments,” he cautions. He also notes that the strong showing by IPC’s Panduleni Itula and AR’s Job Amupanda in specific regions, like London and Cape Town, signals a competitive election.

Kamwanya further emphasizes that the dynamics of the general election, which will include voters from all walks of life—across various cultures and languages—could lead to a very different pattern than what was seen in the special elections. “We should not rule out other parties like LPM and PDM,” he adds. With the general election looming, the possibility of a more competitive race, with both established and emerging parties putting up a fight, remains high.

In conclusion, Kamwanya suggests that while the special election results provide some insight into potential trends, the true picture will only emerge on November 27 when all voters participate in the national elections. As he puts it, “It’s going to be a competitive election, and we should prepare for a more complex outcome.”